Research fellow at TUC on

Hydrology and Climate

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Contribution to the new IPCC special report on impacts of 1.5ºC global warming on natural and human systems (Β)

Glad that the team research contributed to the newly released IPCC's report about the 1.5 degrees global warming impacts! 

  • Grillakis, M.G., A.G. Koutroulis, I.N. Daliakopoulos, and I.K. Tsanis, 2017: A method to preserve trends in quantile mapping bias correction of climate modeled temperature. Earth System Dynamics, 8, 889- 900, doi:10.5194/esd-8-889-2017
  • Grillakis, M.G., A.G. Koutroulis, K.D. Seiradakis, and I.K. Tsanis, 2016: Implications of 2 °C global warming in European summer tourism. Climate Services, 1, 30-38, doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2016.01.002.
  • Jacob, D., Kotova, L., Teichmann, C., Sobolowski, S.P., Vautard, R., Donnelly, C., Koutroulis, A.G., Grillakis, M.G., Tsanis, I.K., Damm, A., Sakalli, A., van Vliet, M.T.H., 2018. Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming. Earth's Futur. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000710Daliakopoulos, I.N., Panagea, I.S., Tsanis, I.K., Grillakis, M.G., Koutroulis, A.G., Hessel, R., Mayor, A.G., Ritsema, C.J., 2017: Yield Response of Mediterranean Rangelands under a Changing Climate. Land Degradation & Development, 28(7), 1962-1972, doi:10.1002/ldr.2717.

  • Koutroulis, A.G., I.K. Tsanis, I.N. Daliakopoulos, and D. Jacob, 2013: Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece. Journal of Hydrology, 479, 146-158, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.055.

  • Betts, R.A., Alfieri, L., Bradshaw, C., Caesar, J., Feyen, L., Friedlingstein, P., Gohar, L., Koutroulis, A., Lewis, K., Morfopoulos, C., Papadimitriou, L., Richardson, K.J., Tsanis, I., Wyser, K., 2018. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 376. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0452

Contribution to the new IPCC special report on impacts of 1.5ºC global warming on natural and human systems (A)

Colleagues' work "Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5° C and 2° C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model" on Philosophical Transactions of Royal Society A used in the newly released IPCC's report about 1.5 degrees global warming impacts. Congrats to Koutroulis who made the figure! (https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_chapter3.pdf)

Figure: Distributions of changes in run-off for mean flows simulated by the JULES ecosystem-hydrology model under the ensemble of six climate projections at 1.5°C (blue) and 2°C (orange) global warming. Boxes show the 25th and 75th percentile changes, whiskers show the range, circles show the four projections that do not define the ends of the range, and crosses show the ensemble means. Numbers in square brackets show the ensemble-mean flow in the baseline, in millimetres of rain equivalent.


How to preserve temperature trends using quantile mapping bias correction

Bias correction of climate variables is a standard practice in Climate Change Impact (CCI) studies. Various methodologies have been developed within the framework of quantile mapping. However, it is well known that quantile mapping may significantly modify the long term statistics due to the time dependency of the temperature bias. How does this distortion occur? An indicative video example is presented here. More about this methodology in: https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-53/

 

How will two degrees global warming impact European summer tourism?

It's easy to see how important weather conditions are for tourism. Air temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind and sunshine duration - they all influence whether travellers think favourably about a holiday destination or not. And how would climate change affect the appeal of holiday destinations? At the recent COP meeting in Paris governments agreed to keep global temperature rise of this century 'well below 2 C'. In their paper titled "Implications of 2 °C global warming in European summer tourism" published in the new journal Climate Services, Grillakis, Koutroulis, Seiradakis, and Tsanis provide an insight of what these two degrees could mean for summer tourism in Europe from a climate comfort perspective.

read more on elsevier news

The IMPACT2C web-atlas summarises in maps and texts the impact of global 2°C warming on European summer tourism industry

The tourism sector plays an important role in many economies all over the world. Moreover, tourism is very sensitive to the weather conditions and therefore might also be strongly affected by future climate change.

Summer tourism can be differentiated during a core season from June to August and during an extended season from May to October. For the extended summer season from May to October, the projected impact on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) improves the situation for summer tourism all over Europe. This finding is also reflected in the number of overnight stays at risk, which are projected to decrease over most parts of Europe, except for Portugal, Greece and Cyprus.

During the core summer season from June to August, projected changes in the TCI indicate that summer tourism in Central and Northern Europe seems to benefit from a warmer climate, whereas some Mediterranean regions will experience a warming beyond the comfort zone. This finding is also reflected in the number of overnight stays at risk during the core summer season, with fewer nights at risk in Central and Northern Europe and more overnight stays at risk in the south.

Visit IMPACT2C web-atlas interactive maps to view a full description of the methods and the impacts of on different sectors.